The 2021 Lottery explained
I’m guessing that there is a good chance that if you’re reading this blog post, you’re probably thinking “Wait, there’s a lottery for High Lonesome this year?”
Short answer, Yes.
But since it’s only for 4 spots we’re going to need the long answer.
As you know, we had to cancel the 2020 High Lonesome. It was a heartbreaking decision, but the correct one. One of the difficulties of the cancelation was figuring out what to do for the runners. We’d largely spent our budget, so our existing cancellation policy (proportional refunds of unspent entry fees) would have meant a negligible refund. Additionally, our cancelation policy was a relic of our pre-lottery entry system. After talking to our Advisory Board, we decided to offer lottery bypasses to 2021 and a 35% discount to those runners who wanted to stay in the race. We also offered a $100 refund for the folks that weren’t interested in 2021.
As a result of the changes, we rolled over 92% (125/135) of our 2020 field. Remember that our 2020 entry cap was 125 but we “oversell” the race during the lottery so the general pools don’t get reduced odds (read more about that here). We also rolled over the waitlist and figured that pretty much took care of the entry process for 2021. We’d decided to hold a faux-lottery (i.e. for 0 spots) so that people could at least keep earning tickets towards 2022 and onwards. But then we got some good news.
After 2 years of asking, the Salida Ranger District graciously increased our cap from 125 to 150 (we started at 75 in 2017). The extra 25 spots could not have come at a better time, as the additional spots will largely offset the financial burden caused by the 2020 cancellation. But more importantly (from a runner’s POV) is that now we had 25 extra spots to divvy out.
We went back to our Advisory Board and the consensus was that the majority of the spots should go to the waitlist. We ended up giving 20 spots to the waitlist, 1 spot for a BIPOC initiative, and 4 spots to the lottery. Why only 4 spots? Because the waitlisters are essentially “first in line” and so the consensus was that they deserved the bulk of the spots, but that the lottery did deserve at least a few spots.
Now while it would be easy to get hung up on the (likely) poor odds of getting one of the 4 spots, the main thing to focus on is the lottery itself. As I’m sure many of you know, having Hardrock get cancelled two years in a row had a devastating affect on the “Nevers” chances of getting into the race (not to mention the ticket-creep that has happened over the past 5-10 years). Similarly, WSER cancelling also set folks back a year. We didn’t want folks wanting to run the High Lonesome to get screwed by the cancellation, so we had already decided that we would have a faux-lottery so that people who weren’t in the race or on the waitlist could still accrue points and have the best odds of getting into the race in 2022. That is still the main goal, but now we can at least give 4 lucky runners an entry.
So what should you expect from the 2021 lottery? Not much for 2021, but consider it an investment towards 2022 (or later). Remember that our lottery has three components (click here for a full explanation of the lottery):
Previous finishes, with a diminishing return
Previous unsuccessful lottery attempts, increasing exponential return
Trail work and volunteering boost
The single biggest booster in the lottery is previous unsuccessful attempts. Consider two examples (assuming neither have any trail work or volunteering boosters). A 2021 runner (person #1) who finishes their first High Lonesome in 2021 and enters the 2022 lottery will have 2.8 tickets. Meanwhile person #2 who applied unsuccessfully in 2020 and 2021, and enters the 2022 lottery will have 8 tickets. Plus, if person #2 does volunteers for 2 shifts and gets an extra 16 hours of trail work they would have 11.2 tickets.
In short, applying to the 2021 lottery at minimum DOUBLES your ticket count for the 2022 lottery.
What if 2021 is your first year applying to the lottery? Well in 2021 (assuming no trail work or volunteering), you’d have 2 tickets, and 4 in 2022. But if you skip the 2021 lottery you’d only have 2 tickets in 2022 which is the least number of tickets possible.
Now there are a couple more pieces of info that apply here. First, you still have to meet the qualification requirements. Second, registration opens at 12:01am on Jan 1 and closes at 11:59pm on Jan 10 (Denver time) and you have to register for the lottery during that window. Third, the cancellation policy for 2021 is loosely described as “going for broke”. There are no refunds, no rollovers, no lottery bypasses. We are going full speed ahead and will not cancel the event until forced to, and then only at the last possible second. If it happens, we have a great race. If not, we tried our hardest and held out for as long as possible.
So, if you’re still a little fuzzy on what to do, here’s my 2021 lottery strategy advice for you.
Current runners: All you need to do is sign up for 2021. But, if you’d like to run again in 2022 here’s my advice. Regardless of the number of finishes you have, you’ll still want to do extra trail work and/or volunteer. 2021 has looser then usual trail work requirements (due to COVID) so it’s a great chance to earn some extra tickets. The best volunteering shifts for you are our Denver work days, Wednesday/Thursday Aid Station Prep, or at packet pickup on Thursday.
Current waitlisters: You can still enter the lottery AND keep your position on the waitlist, so definitely register for both. This ensures several things. First, you might get lucky and draw one of the 4 spots, and secondly you will boost your odds towards 2022. Volunteer and trail work counts from 2019 and 2020 (only for 2021 lottery) so you get an even bigger boost if you did some work in 2019. You still have a few weeks to try to get extra trail work, so you can also try to get a boost there. Remember two key things: you loose all your tickets if you get an invite from the waitlist and decline, and second 2022 is your best shot if you are 30 or lower on the waitlist.
Everyone else (qualified): apply to 2021 but don’t expect much else. If you have trail work or volunteering you can use those to boost your odds, but again, don’t expect much. Best thing is to focus on 2022 and maximize your odds there. Do this by volunteering at the race and doing as much trail work as you can in 2021. Look at the value of each shift (bottom of this page) to find the highest value shifts (usually Comms or Medical). Make sure you have a qualifier for 2022 too!
Everyone else (not qualified): You can’t apply to the 2021 lottery, but you can still work towards 2022. First step, get a qualifier for 2022 (i.e. run a 50 miler, 100k, or 100+ miler in 2021). Second, volunteer at the 2021 race and/or do as much trail work in 2021 as you can. Look at the value of each shift (bottom of this page) to find the highest value shifts (especially Comms or Medical).
Some additional things to remember:
Trail work cannot be used for multiple things. So you can’t do a work day and use it for your race requirement then turn around and apply it towards a lottery boost. Remember, it’s EXTRA trail work that you are claiming credit for, not the required trail work.
You can only claim volunteer hours done at the High Lonesome (possibly our other races, that’s still TBD). Volunteering at any other race is fantastic, but will not boost your lottery odds.
We are adding SAR and EMS to the “Volunteering” category. These must be volunteer (unpaid) and if you are claiming EMS you’ll need to show an EMT or greater level of certification.
The new child deferral does apply to 2021, read it here.
We are adding a “ticket only” component to the lottery. This means that you can select to enter the lottery, but not be drawn in that year. Why? Because it will let you accrue tickets while “life” is in the way. For example, let’s say you want to apply in 2021 but you can't run because you can’t travel (maybe you’re in another country or your job won’t allow it, etc). You can still apply and earn tickets but won’t have to worry about being drawn. Another likely example is if you’re pregnant and don’t/can’t run this year but you want to run later.
If you have any questions feel free to email us or reach out on social media.
Good luck!
Caleb Efta
RD, High Lonesome 100